Barrow AFC.net

I am giving Southend United 1 point per game from now on. So add 17 points to their current 24, making 41.

That makes the Barrow target 42 points, 1 point per game from 19 games added to the current 23.

7 wins from 19 games - simple

Sorry Boylie, forgot the emoji!

50 would guarantee survival but that’s dreamland; think we will need 43

We need double what we have now ideally, 7 wins required with a few draws thrown in. We have a decent number of games to do it but we need the points pronto starting tomorrow night, thankfully we didn't dither over the Jolley decision for a couple of weeks as we could have had a mountain to climb.

This is what it has taken to finish one point ahead of 23rd in League Two in each of the last 10 seasons. These figures include that extra point.
The calculation for the last, uncompleted season is based on multiplying the points per game of each team by 46.

Season Points
2010/11 48
2011/12 45
2012/13 52
2013/14 51
2014/15 42
2015/16 35
2016/17 47
2017/18 47
2018/19 42
2019/20 41
Average 45.0

I see this season's bottom two as being slightly below the average of the last 10 seasons and thus I guess that a minimum of 42 points is the required total for this season. You can see that in three of the last 10 seasons 42 points have been enough. But this season's bottom two are slightly inferior to the average bottom two of the last 10 seasons.
We are seeking the minimum to be one point ahead of 23rd place.

Error, in 4 of the last ten seasons 42 points were enough as shown in the table of the above post.
2014/15 42
2015/16 35
2018/19 42
2019/20 41

It could very well be one of those 50+ points seasons. 47 may be ok so long as we don't get beat by Grimsby or Southend.

Teams above can still get dragged onto it. Look at Colchesters last 15 games. In freefall.

sprinfield_quark wrote: ↑Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:19 am Error, in 4 of the last ten seasons 42 points were enough as shown in the table of the above post.
2014/15 42
2015/16 35
2018/19 42
2019/20 41

Have always thought that 46 points would be enough to stay up in a league of 46 games where only two go down.

However in our situation our strategy has to be a little street smart. At this moment we are in a mini league of three with Grimsby and Southend. So the value of points or wins at this moment in time has to be directly related to what those two teams are doing. Stay with or ahead of these is objective number 1.

Objective number 2 would be in keeping abreast of those two, develop a capability to slowly haul back the teams immediately above. The lesson from history in this division is that a couple of teams will fall away at some point. In this season as clubs get to a point where they think they may be safe..ish and financial constraints grip some will falter.

Lastly take opportunities when you can according to to the conditions that apply at the time. Its a strange season. I'd rather us be playing Newport County at this very moment than Stevenage. There remains not a huge gap between best and worst. So dont just judge whether a game is winnable by the league position of the team we are playing.

And just on that last point it is worth pointing out that irrespective of the dross that Jolley manufactured out of his team the run of fixtures leading to his demise were - based on the pattern of recent performances of the opponents concerned - were arguably some of the most difficult to get results from. We've been playing decent teams in good form. Our own inability to perform has made it all look doubly bad. So the upside potentially may be that if we can up our own game to something that we still believe this squad should be capable of, then there may be opportunities.

We live by slogans at the moment so heres one for the remainder of the season "Be smart, Save our season, Play with heart".

We are seeking to discern what will be the absolute minimum number of points that will suffice, not what will almost certainly be enough, not what we think will usually be enough.
In the current season bearing all factors in mind, what will be the minimum number of points needed to finish one point better than 23rd?




















'

sprinfield_quark wrote: ↑Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:30 pm We are seeking to discern what will be the absolute minimum number of points that will suffice, not what will almost certainly be enough, not what we think will usually be enough.
In the current season bearing all factors in mind, what will be the minimum number of points needed to finish one point better than 23rd?

Nobody knows what the minimum points needed will be - Grimsby and Southend may not pick up another point. Wigan may go bust.

Moribund wrote: ↑Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:37 pm

sprinfield_quark wrote: ↑Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:30 pm We are seeking to discern what will be the absolute minimum number of points that will suffice, not what will almost certainly be enough, not what we think will usually be enough.
In the current season bearing all factors in mind, what will be the minimum number of points needed to finish one point better than 23rd?

Nobody knows what the minimum points needed will be - Grimsby and Southend may not pick up another point. Wigan may go bust.

The answer to the posters question strictly speaking would be 25 points. Both Grimsby and Southend lose all their remaining games expect the ones versus us where we draw twice. I believe Grimsby have played Southend twice already. We would then require one more point to stay ahead of Southend on goal difference (as currently stands) or two points to be sure. So 25 or 26 points is the answer mathematically assuming all teams finish. Easy job then. Just one more win required.

Southend currently winning away at high flyers forest green, typical.