Player shortage

[Middleton Nick]

Yes..... We might play on Saturday!!

[barrowfan]

Yes..... We might play on Saturday!!

No chance! Rock hard pitch covered in snow!

[northscaler]

Squad as I count it is 19 plus 1 loaned out. 4 loans and a non contract player out of those 18.

[McMark]

Goalkeepers
Steve Arnold
Joel Dixon

Defence
Dan Jones
Moussa Diarra
Thierry Audel
Jack Barthram
Tony Diagne (non contract terms)
Calum Macdonald (loan)
Ollie cook (loan)

Midfield
Bradley Bauress
Asa Hall
David Fitzpatrick (long term injury)
Bedsente Gomis
Donovan Makoma
Chris Humphrey (loan) returned to Bury for injury to be assessed.
Kingsley James (loan)


Strikers
Jordan White
Byron Harrison (on loan at Sutton)
Harry Panayiotou
Grant Holt
Luke James (loan)

20 players in the squad one of which is a long term injury
And five loanee’s, one being injury assessed back at Bury(only five loan players can play on any matchday)
Thin on the ground to say the least!!

[northscaler]

So a squad of 20. 1 player out on loan , 1 injured and 1 highly doubtful to come back. As it stands its a squad of 17

[McMark]

So a squad of 20. 1 player out on loan , 1 injured and 1 highly doubtful to come back. As it stands its a squad of 17

Yep, it's even worse than you first feared, but I make it 18 available.

[HenneysKnee]

And of that 17 there are 5 players who aren’t national league level players even in a struggling team

[McMark]

And of that 18 there are 5 players who aren’t national league level players even in a struggling team

Our season is in the lap of the gods at the minute. Injurys and suspensions are probably key to whether we stay up or not.

[Wintergreen]

So, a winger with the public profile of a unicorn, a waffer thin squad with a distinct lack of quality and a fixture pile up. Going to be good innit?

[northscaler]

Still to play

HOME:
Hartlepool
Eastleigh
Dover
Fylde
Ebbsfleet

AWAY:
Guiseley
Macclesfield
Maidenhead
Boreham Wood
Leyton Orient
Aldershot
Chester
Bromley

Bar a trip to Guiseley and Chester I don't think that squad has the depth and/or goals in them to get a lot from those fixtures. Macclesfield are going for the league. Dover, Bromley, Ebbsfleet, Boreham Wood, Aldershot and Fylde are after the play offs and will be determined and confident against a side who is really struggling.

Plus add the distance travelled with long trips to Bromley , Leyton Orient , Maidenhead, Boreham Wood and Aldershot. it is bound to take its toll on such a small squad.

[Hadrian]

Even Cox only wanted 22!

[Suffolk Blue]

Bar a trip to Guiseley and Chester I don't think that squad has the depth and/or goals in them to get a lot from those fixtures. Macclesfield are going for the league. Dover, Bromley, Ebbsfleet, Boreham Wood, Aldershot and Fylde are after the play offs and will be determined and confident against a side who is really struggling.

Plus add the distance travelled with long trips to Bromley , Leyton Orient , Maidenhead, Boreham Wood and Aldershot. it is bound to take its toll on such a small squad.

If you take BAFCs average points yield over the season and compare it with the averages over the last 5,10 and 15 games you'll find that despite managers coming and going and movement in and out of the squad and differing mixs of "easier" or "harder" fixtures and better or worse home or away form - then the average remains pretty stable at between 1.1 and 1.2 points per game. Indeed surprisingly we have one of the most consistent performance records in the NL. Should you choose to believe that despite ups and downs that this trend will continue then our EOS points tally would come in between 50 and 52 points.

The theory that a lot of games played together burn out a smallish squad the greater the number of games that are played has some truth in it, but is to some extent based on historical squads being part-time. With a full-time squad there are as many risks in leaving gaps between games of more than a week than there are in playing Sat-Tues-Sat. Further a smallish squad will probably function better as a unit. Guiseley dont have any squad size limitations and look at their position. Conversely Solihull has quite a small squad (and indeed a small budget) and look at their results over the last 15 games which have been as good as Macclesfields.

Before we panic or feel a sense of doom bear in mind that Hartlepool, Chester, Dagenham and Halifax I believe are under some form of either mandated or self-imposed transfer embargo and are actually shedding players to balance their books. Further if you project forward average points yields over the last 5, 10 or 15 games, Halifax, Hartlepool and Maidstone would striggle to make 50 points and Chester, Torquay and Guiseley would have to average 2 pts per game to get to 50 points. So unless they start to play like champions they are almost certain to be relegated.

Lastly I'm not sure where this preconception comes from than teams in or near the play-off places are driven to play great football as the season draws to a close. If only the brains of footballers worked like that. They often play frantic and flakey football to secure a place and conserve resources one a play-off place is assured. The truth is that there is no great side in this League this season. All the teams quoted above have often played well but all have screwed up on occasions. They are where they are not so much because they are vastly superior or have massive squads but because they've managed to be more consistent. On a one off game-by-game basis however they are all vulnerable.

[Biggestfan]

The game against Chester is at home on the last day of the season-not away

[AugustusCorpa]

Fitzpatrick was a good signing

[The Tomahawk Kid]

The game against Chester is at home on the last day of the season-not away

Correct!

Guiseley away and the two home games against Hartlepool and Chester on 10th and 28th April are MUST WIN fixtures!

If we can obtain 9 points from those 3 games and 5 points from the other fixtures we might just survive...
I think 50 points is usually the points tally to ensure safety.