games tonight

[Jonty]

Gateshead have scored 2-2!

[whitty1969]

Finished 2-2

[Tom Brownlee]

Oh there is a god!!! 96 min equaliser for the Heed!

[Matty]

Well quite simply it’s in our own hands, and given the amount of postponements and the number of weekends where results have gone for us the law of averages suggests there was always going to be some point where they’d go against. Time to turn this home form around and win some games.

[Matty]

Point still stands despite that late equaliser.

[Jonty]

We need to keep looking up. Torquay beating Orient keeps Orient within touching distance. If we finish below Torquay or Chester we will be down and will deserve to be down.

[McMark]

Could of been a lot worse those results. Twelve big games to decide our own fate. At the minute the football gods are rooting for us it would seem, hopefully they continue to do so.

[Steelworks End]

Time to turn this home form around and win some games.

Steady on there. Win at home - is that allowed?

[mrsenario]

We fans need to do our bit next Wednesday in front of the cameras...no point 700 turning up and getting beat easily, it’s backs to the wall stuff now and who knows what’s going to happen,

[Moribund]

The Hartlepool game next week is starting to look like a "six-pointer".
Guiseley away is also one of our games in hand, so that can't be anything other than a must-win game. Of course, we could be saved anyway by Hartlepool going bust, but we certainly can't afford to rely on that.

[JammyBluebird]

To get to a safety point I think we need 52 points at least. So that's 5 wins and 1 draw from our remaining 12 games.

If you put them in order of standing in the table this is our priority

Guiseley (A) - 17/04/18
Chester (H) - 28/04/18
Hartlepool United (H) - 21/03/18
Leyton Orient (A) - 07/04/18
Eastleigh (H) - 10/04/18
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Maidenhead United (A) - 17/03/18
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bromley (A) - 24/04/18
Ebbsfleet United (H) - 14/04/18
AFC Fylde (H) - 02/04/18
Dover Athletic (H) - 24/03/18
Boreham Wood (A) - 30/03/18
Aldershot Town (A) - 21/04/18

Tough task that's for sure!

[Suffolk Blue]

Interesting viewpoint Jammy. I've come up with about half a dozen different ways of evaluating the challenge and of course each one has its flaws.

Cant argue with the general priority of your list which I'm assuming is based on the "six pointer" principle - i.e. you need to beat the teams closest to you the most.

The problem with this approach is that is sort of assumes that these are the teams that we are most likely to beat. And the problem with that is that the dynamics of results change quite a bit in the run in to the end of a season.

The 52 point mark I guess has been chosen because it represents the point a which relegation almost becomes impossible. But I think its pretty unlikely that the 20th team will need to get 52 to survive. The factor that has been pushing up the EOS points forecast is Solihull. Before their run in the New Year the forecast looked like it would end up with the 21st Team somewhere in the low-mid 40s (and indeed for Torquay, Chester, Guiseley this is still the case). Even with Solihulls run they are still 35 points from 36 games which at a point per remaining game wouldn't get them to 46 points. Hartlepool are 38 points for 36 games. A point per game would take them to 48. However this forecast is now subject to greater fluctuation as each remaining game is played. But, I'll stick my head out and forecast that the team in the last relegation place probably wont get 50 points.

In terms of who we are more likely to beat in the run, the guidelines will change for that. Essentially it needs to take into account the "Who cares most" principle. So you're looking for teams who wont turn up 100% either because they've perhaps secured a play-off spot and want to conserve resources; or they've secured their place and are conserving budget so are happy to put out slightly weakened teams or have already been relegated and have nothing to play for. Though this last category is an odd one as a release of pressure on a relegated side especially when playing a side with something to play for can have unwanted psychological consequences.

So take Orient v Torquay last night as an example. That's a result that's probably influenced by the situation rather than the quality of each team. Home supporters tend to say "well they wanted it more" when they get a result like that when there is absolutely no reason that Torquay should have wanted the win more than Orient. These outcomes happen more at this time of the season so even if we face a relegated Chester on the last day of the season needing to win, doesn't mean that it will be more likely that we will win.

So last prediction from your list. There will be at least one team in your top three that beats us and at least one team in your bottom three that we beat.

[Jim]

All the other teams threatened with relegation at this point will be looking at their fixtures and also concluding "it's a tough task for sure"! My simple formula: aim to remain unbeaten until end of season and that's 12 points for sure - possibly enough. For every game we lose, we need to win one. Lose a couple, win a couple = 14 points. Easy

[Suffolk Blue]

All the other teams threatened with relegation at this point will be looking at their fixtures and also concluding "it's a tough task for sure"! My simple formula: aim to remain unbeaten until end of season and that's 12 points for sure - possibly enough. For every game we lose, we need to win one. Lose a couple, win a couple = 14 points. Easy

+1 Just focus on the next game.

[Jonty]

When you look at the way our season has unfolded, I don’t think we’ve lost a game by more than two goals, Goals against is only marginally worse than teams outside the top 7 yet here we are languishing in 20th without a win at home in what seems like an eternity. It has been a dreadful season with so many changes. I just hope Pennock can get us safe as quickly as possible and then set about sorting it out. Our aim should be to be a consistently solid National league side, competitive and build off the pitch to be in a place to challenge at the top. Gateshead always seem to be consistent, they don’t get great crowds, they play decent football and never give up, as proved when they played us with 10 men and again last night v Solihull. Whatever they are doing to remain a consistently solid national league side can we have a bit of it here please.