Decisions being made

[Suffolk Blue]

Quite a discussion on 5 Live tonight saying that a decision would have to be made by May 2nd as that's when a lot of players' contracts end.

Another scenario which I had not heard before is that you could have points per game, but supplemented by a formula which takes into account the number of remaining home and away games.

There will be lots of scenarios popping up in the next couple of weeks. Problem is the more creative they get the more problems they tend to encounter.

So your scenario regarding PPG plus home and away formula suffers from one obvious flaw. By settling on PPG the clubs are conceding that games played is relevant. So when you create a formula to assess remaining home/away performance you also have to factor in home/away performance at the point the season ended. For most teams their PPG is reflected in their Home/Away stats so by applying a formula you probably dont change very much, though it would get you to an end point.

It would affect teams who had not won as many games and where the home v away performance was disproportionate. So Notts County's away record is poor in relation to its home. But Notts County's last home games may look pretty winnable. But if you apply a formula based on historic performance they wont fair well even if they've got Chorley, Ebbsfleet or Maidenhead.

The danger is that then this gets overlaid with a pools panel approach which would be a very very poor way of doing it. Happily I dont think we would have much to fear from such a novel idea because if its stats based we will always come out on top.

[blue nige]

https://www.nottscountyfc.co.uk/news/20 ... nQ.twitter

Not bitter then

And another one https://twitter.com/Ollie_Bayliss/statu ... 60160?s=09

[Suffolk Blue]

Did Maidstone do a Bury Suffolk?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... l/49800842

Yes Whitty, thanks for making me go back and do the homework.

The "quorum" for Div 1 and Div 2 has always been 24 clubs. Div 1 has as far as I can see always had 24 clubs - so Bury was a new phenomenon last year.

Situation in Div 2 (then Div 4) is a little more colourful. In season 1991/92 Aldershot folded after playing 36 games. The following season 1992/3 Maidstone went tits up without playing a game. I might be wrong (again) but I think Maidstone were about to be promoted into Div 1 but were dumped at the bottom of Div2 as a result. So the Division went from 24 to 23 and then to 22 a situation that was not fully remedied until 1995/96 by which time it was back at 24.

So why the shortfall? Two reasons as far as I can tell. Firstly rules only allowed for one Conference side to be promoted - the champions. Secondly and most crucially the champions of the Conference in three consecutive seasons Macclesfield, Kidderminster and Stevenage all failed admission on ground quality.

This period was instrumental in pushing the League and Conference towards the idea of two promotion candidates and of pre-approving Conference clubs before the AGM. Bizarrely therefore it does sort of strengthen the view that the EFL has always been comfortable with 24 clubs.

[Hadrian]

Seasons finished so surely this also includes Play Offs as they are all part of the 19-20 football calendar.

"National League Clubs were asked to support an ordinary resolution on 9 April to end the Playing Season for all fixtures scheduled up to and including 25 April 2020." - National League Website, 22nd April 2020

This doesn't necessarily mean the season is ended. Could play-offs -scheduled after 25th April - take place? Who would be in them? Teams in the play off places at the point the 'regular' season ended? All teams with a mathematical chance of reaching the play offs? (Before going into the minutiae of who had been due to play whom limiting the potential points hauls, the starting point could be all teams except for Chorley. Sorry, Chorley.) In normal times one club is promoted on league position, another on a combination of league position and an end-of-season knockout competition. Would it be reasonable to promote two (or more) on the basis of a knockout competition only?

It appears that member clubs would have to change the rules relating to the business for any resolution of the issue. What majority would be required? Is it open to appeal? Is it open to legal challenge?

Meanwhile all this is against the football background of this season's squads coming to the end of their natural life - at the end of June, we are told. It would be a nonsense to create a mini-competition after that point to determine the champions/other promoted club(s)/relegated clubs - if any are to be determined. For example, given the size of their squad, Notts County might think they would have enough decent players left to play in July - or more likely August while Boreham Wood may be at a significant disadvantage. Such a situation would clearly be a nonsense but there's a danger that some voices can shout louder.

I agree with our manager, whom I wish well at what must be an incredibly frustrating time for him - football has lacked leadership. I understand why that may be the case and suspect the real winners might end up being those who practise law.

And all of that is against a much more important background - that of the whole country and our fights to save lives and for our country's future health in so many ways, all of which puts football into perspective.

[barrowfan]

It has been decided to end the season but not HOW to end the season. That is the next stage.

[Colin Appleton]

For what it's worth I've spoken to the Chairman of two Football League clubs this week and both have said they expect to see Barrow in the League next season.
The only question mark is, what will that league structure look like when next season finally gets underway ?

[chipmunx]

Quite a discussion on 5 Live tonight saying that a decision would have to be made by May 2nd as that's when a lot of players' contracts end.

Another scenario which I had not heard before is that you could have points per game, but supplemented by a formula which takes into account the number of remaining home and away games.

the only thing that changes with basing PPG separately is that Notts County are 3rd on PPG - but drop to 5th when home and away PPG are done separately - because they only have 3 home games left - but 5 away. It's not a new suggestion and Barrow's Home and Away PPG are both better than Harrogates.

[whitty1969]

So, the silly old git doesn't want relegation (no suprise)
But thinks Harrogate and Barrow should play off at a neutral venue for a place in the EFL

https://www.lythamstannesexpress.co.uk/ ... ds-2546949

[HenneysKnee]

So, the silly old git doesn't want relegation (no suprise)
But thinks Harrogate and Barrow should play off at a neutral venue for a place in the EFL

https://www.lythamstannesexpress.co.uk/ ... ds-2546949

That won’t happen imho. Why should Harrogate be in the play off and not Notts County for example

[Wintergreen]

So, the silly old git doesn't want relegation (no suprise)
But thinks Harrogate and Barrow should play off at a neutral venue for a place in the EFL

https://www.lythamstannesexpress.co.uk/ ... ds-2546949

That won’t happen imho. Why should Harrogate be in the play off and not Notts County for example

Exactly. Looks like Notts County are already having a hissy fit as it is.

[Suffolk Blue]

So, the silly old git doesn't want relegation (no suprise)
But thinks Harrogate and Barrow should play off at a neutral venue for a place in the EFL

https://www.lythamstannesexpress.co.uk/ ... ds-2546949

That won’t happen imho. Why should Harrogate be in the play off and not Notts County for example

Chairman Dave is living in his alternate reality. His idea of a play-off between two clubs is quite odd until you realise that in order for the suggestion to be plausible there would have to be only one spot available to play for. So he's factoring in that no team will be relegated from League 2 (which itself runs counter to the EFL's declared position). Clearly there is a reason he is assuming this - the real and pretty transparent reason for the idea - namely that there would also be no relegation from the NL (or for Fylde).

What you end up with is one of these peculiar variations that takes different positions on promotion and relegation to fit the needs of a particular club who's options are limited. As has been pointed out Notts County could generate something similar to suit them.

This type of idea is likely to be binned pretty early on because it does not on the face of it address the needs of the majority. .

[Moribund]

The Notts County statement is pitiful:

"One of such proposals would lead to clubs in less promising or precarious positions being able to conclude their season once and for all, leaving the others to resolve matters in the spirit of the competition over a short time period."

So only the clubs in a strong financial position should compete for a promotion place? Yeah, really in the spirit of the competition...

[Suffolk Blue]

The Notts County statement is pitiful:

"One of such proposals would lead to clubs in less promising or precarious positions being able to conclude their season once and for all, leaving the others to resolve matters in the spirit of the competition over a short time period."

So only the clubs in a strong financial position should compete for a promotion place? Yeah, really in the spirit of the competition...

Well they are spot on. The loudest voices we are hearing thus far are from those about to drown demanding priority access to the lifeboats. If the NL accedes to such requests even to be voted on it risks very badly damaging itself.

Still think that the promotion issue will ultimately be the one that the majority will coalesce around. If you are above the bottom three you dont care if the season is called or voided. You'll probably go with the majority. There are far more clubs interested in the promotion issue especially now they know they wont be asked to finish the regular season.

[chipmunx]

it's highly likely that no more football at any level will be played this season - but that the PL will expand to 22 teams next season - so promotion, but no relegation - partly because the PL could let Sky/BT show more games with increased team numbers - to avoid paying back millions in tv money.

that would filter down the leagues in one of 2 ways;-

1) IF the NL don't get their act together it will end up with team numbers as follows - PL (22) Champ (24) Div 1 (24) Div 2 (22)
2) IF the NL do get their act together - PL (22) Champ (24) Div 1 (24) Div 2 (24)

and by get their act together I mean decide on the final league table. IF the NL is voided there will be no basis to promote teams and the EFL will follow it's own rules and invite 1 club (probably us) to make up the numbers. IF however the NL table is agreed on PPG - either over total games or with separate home and away PPG then the EFL would most likely take the top 3 teams from the NL to keep Division 2 at 24 teams.
Clubs like Notts County will need to be very careful how they vote because in the end they could cost themselves a place in the league by being pigheaded.

[Hitthebar22]

it's highly likely that no more football at any level will be played this season - but that the PL will expand to 22 teams next season - so promotion, but no relegation - partly because the PL could let Sky/BT show more games with increased team numbers - to avoid paying back millions in tv money.

that would filter down the leagues in one of 2 ways;-

1) IF the NL don't get their act together it will end up with team numbers as follows - PL (22) Champ (24) Div 1 (24) Div 2 (22)
2) IF the NL do get their act together - PL (22) Champ (24) Div 1 (24) Div 2 (24)

and by get their act together I mean decide on the final league table. IF the NL is voided there will be no basis to promote teams and the EFL will follow it's own rules and invite 1 club (probably us) to make up the numbers. IF however the NL table is agreed on PPG - either over total games or with separate home and away PPG then the EFL would most likely take the top 3 teams from the NL to keep Division 2 at 24 teams.
Clubs like Notts County will need to be very careful how they vote because in the end they could cost themselves a place in the league by being pigheaded.

Agree in principle with this, but the detail is difficult. If we are invited in (personally I think it's a distinct possibility at the very least with the Bury factor), who gets promoted from L2 to L1 to get the numbers up to 24, presuming there is no promotion/relegation elsewhere? Crewe currently top, but only on goal difference from Swindon who have a game in hand - sort that one out...
Alternatively who is going up from NL when the promotion structure (excluding the champions) involves a series of play offs?
All very difficult to be fair to everyone. What we need are decisions very soon.