Decisions being made

[Adam29]

It’s the league authorities that make the decisions.
EFL have said that one team is guaranteed to be moved from National League to EFL how that happens depends on what the National League decide - if they can’t decide then the EFL decide themselves same as they will with their own leagues - it’s them who want to balance the football league out

[Nigel Bamford]

The problem as I see it for the NL is that they do not know, cannot know for certain right now how the EFL season will end and also because the NL tends to operate around an April key date when it is then forced to make decisions, and ahead of the EFL which is oriented more around June. It may believe that in all probability only 1 team will go up but it cannot make decisions on that basis. It has to plan for 2. The quotes such as they are from the EFL/NL would also seem to suggest this.

So the NL is going to have to make a decision without that question being answered - yet.

That was exactly my point. The NL has to work on the premise that two teams will be promoted until that position is incontrovertibly ruled out. Not to do so would be to fail their promotion-chasing members.

[Nigel Bamford]

It’s the league authorities that make the decisions.
EFL have said that one team is guaranteed to be moved from National League to EFL how that happens depends on what the National League decide - if they can’t decide then the EFL decide themselves same as they will with their own leagues - it’s them who want to balance the football league out

Now that is news to me. Until now it's been supposition that they will want to balance their numbers. I've never seen that one team is guaranteed a place.

[russell_anderson]

OK. Thanks Adam.

I agree that the completion of the EFL season cant be taken for granted. It might well not happen, although I do think we should see the EFL in its entirety. The Championship is also EFL and I think its chances of finishing are brighter than for L2. Its more incentivised to do so. Whilst you cannot rule the EFL eventually coming up with a solution that differentiates between its Divisions that would be quite a difficult one to pull off and would be pretty controversial. That's one of the problems with the EFL - its very diverse.

The problem as I see it for the NL is that they do not know, cannot know for certain right now how the EFL season will end and also because the NL tends to operate around an April key date when it is then forced to make decisions, and ahead of the EFL which is oriented more around June. It may believe that in all probability only 1 team will go up but it cannot make decisions on that basis. It has to plan for 2. The quotes such as they are from the EFL/NL would also seem to suggest this.

So the NL is going to have to make a decision without that question being answered - yet. Its in a highly vulnerable position because it cant make a decision that is guaranteed to be right. Stevenage will probably end up being the bargaining chip in this but the NL will take a hammering if it gets this wrong. Voiding in this respect creates a double jeopardy for the NL. As you've pointed out a void would allow the EFL in theory to select who it wanted to take the spare place - though I think the list of candidates is smaller than you suggest as not all 24 clubs are approved for the EFL or would want to go up. But if it weren't Barrow then this would subject the NL and the EFL to some ridicule. Secondly if the NL voided but the EFL season did complete or was declared then the EFL would reprieve Stevenage anyway using the excuse that the NL had in fact voided. In this instance it could have had two sides promoted but missed out by voiding.

I'm more inclined to the view that what we will get from the NL is a judgement that may not in fact look like a decision at all but is more hypothetical than real (i.e. If this happens...then we will do that). I'm not sure it'll be as clear and decisive as we might think.

As far as I can see it should be very easy for the NL to make a decision. They would like 2 teams to be promoted and they have already said that there will be no more football. Therefore they merely need to decide their top 2 teams and bottom 4 teams on some basis which I would suggest should be PPG (whichever system they decide to use would make Barrow champions). It is then down to the EFL if they decide just to take 1 team or 2 teams from the NL and that is something the NL would have to accept.

[Suffolk Blue]

Then a team would be promoted from League 2 into League one on the same principle

Granted but there is a problem here Crewe are top on 69 points played 37 while Swindon also have 69 points but played only 36. Do they decide by placing or PPG (Swindon would then go up) as a decision will have to be made as null and void does not work here. They can't make one decision for one league and different ones for say L1, NL & the championship.

Firstly I dont suppose the EFL really cares about the compliment of teams in the NL. That's the NLs problem and is part of their decision making conundrum.

The EFL have previously stated their intention to re-balance the divisions at the end of this season. But that was before Coronavirus. That has always been taken to mean the same number of clubs in each division. Voiding would make that impossible but the EFL could decide to continue with 23 clubs for another season in L1. It might not want to but it might be a way out of a tricky situation. Wouldn't have to make a choice between Crewe and Swindon and wouldn't have to take any club from the NL if they had decided to void also. Nobody actually has to be promoted from the NL.

Problem will be voiding the Championship or differentiating between the Championship and L1/L2. The EFL will be keen to stay in line with the Prem and it is beginning to look more like the Prem is going to have a go at finishing. So a complete null and void by the EFL at this point I think is unlikely and that keeps all options open. Meanwhile everybody tries to keep in step with everyone else. Why on earth would we expect a definitive decision by the NL at this point. Every decision has the potential to go wrong so why make it?

[Suffolk Blue]

As far as I can see it should be very easy for the NL to make a decision. They would like 2 teams to be promoted and they have already said that there will be no more football. Therefore they merely need to decide their top 2 teams and bottom 4 teams on some basis which I would suggest should be PPG (whichever system they decide to use would make Barrow champions). It is then down to the EFL if they decide just to take 1 team or 2 teams from the NL and that is something the NL would have to accept.

You're assuming Russ that a void decision is not on the cards for the NL. If it still is then the NL has only got one problem to face - that its going to lose a club -probably. No one gets relegated from the NL and the NLN/NLS stay the same (in theory). Hence the crafty suggestion from Steve Dale the admitting Bury to the NL might work. The NL might find itself having to run with the possibility of 23 clubs next season.

There remain many possible scenarios and not one of them is without its flaws.

By the way, nice to see you are burning the midnight oil, mate.

[Hitthebar22]

Have to say pretty much every argument for us going up (or not) has been analysed and regurgitated from virtually every perspective. It's interesting up to a point, but I think we've done it to death now. It's a rather like the virus problem - lots of speculation, but no one knows (still) what the **** is going on...Second guessing the National League and the EFL is interesting (as I've said, up to a point), but speculation seems to be done to death for the time being, for me at least - until something new and interesting happens of course!! I'm strongly of the view (which counts for nothing), that we will go up, one way or another. As I've said ad nauseam into what sort of system is a different consideration.

[Moribund]

Had a look at the Notts County forum, and it's mostly nonsense about them being a big club so they should be promoted instead of us.

One freak says we shouldn't be promoted because a lot of North West clubs are already struggling and we're also near Windscale!

Makes this place seem normal.

[russell_anderson]

As far as I can see it should be very easy for the NL to make a decision. They would like 2 teams to be promoted and they have already said that there will be no more football. Therefore they merely need to decide their top 2 teams and bottom 4 teams on some basis which I would suggest should be PPG (whichever system they decide to use would make Barrow champions). It is then down to the EFL if they decide just to take 1 team or 2 teams from the NL and that is something the NL would have to accept.

You're assuming Russ that a void decision is not on the cards for the NL. If it still is then the NL has only got one problem to face - that its going to lose a club -probably. No one gets relegated from the NL and the NLN/NLS stay the same (in theory). Hence the crafty suggestion from Steve Dale the admitting Bury to the NL might work. The NL might find itself having to run with the possibility of 23 clubs next season.

There remain many possible scenarios and not one of them is without its flaws.

By the way, nice to see you are burning the midnight oil, mate.

I suspect that to avoid a void decision is one of the reasons the NL are making the decision as opposed to having a vote which would probably split the non-void clubs i.e. between current positions and PPG. I also think there would be an outcry if no NLN/NLS team was promoted and Bury were placed in the NL so I can't see that happening. However, none of us can be certain what will happen so we can only hope for the best. I'm definitely a midnight oil burner!!!

[russell_anderson]

Have to say pretty much every argument for us going up (or not) has been analysed and regurgitated from virtually every perspective. It's interesting up to a point, but I think we've done it to death now. It's a rather like the virus problem - lots of speculation, but no one knows (still) what the **** is going on...Second guessing the National League and the EFL is interesting (as I've said, up to a point), but speculation seems to be done to death for the time being, for me at least - until something new and interesting happens of course!! I'm strongly of the view (which counts for nothing), that we will go up, one way or another. As I've said ad nauseam into what sort of system is a different consideration.

You're correct, of course, HTB but we have to find a few things to pass the time these days. There's only so much reading, gardening and watching TV that you can manage!

[boyliegladbach]

Your all just going round in circles here.
Can we not just wait till decision then have another 30 pages.

[chipmunx]

Your all just going round in circles here.
Can we not just wait till decision then have another 30 pages.

no chance that will happen - if we get promoted we'll all be pi$$ed down the pu.... *&*! - yeah you might be right....

[McMark]

Your all just going round in circles here.
Can we not just wait till decision then have another 30 pages.

no chance that will happen - if we get promoted we'll all be pi$$ed down the pu.... *&*! - yeah you might be right....

Could always open a speakeasy!
All in favour say aye

[Suffolk Blue]

no chance that will happen - if we get promoted we'll all be pi$$ed down the pu.... *&*! - yeah you might be right....

Could always open a speakeasy!
All in favour say aye

We are a broad church on this forum. Some prefer a twitter like approach to posting, others (probably including me) find themselves standing on a virtual soapbox every time they begin to write. Put together it produces a much better forum than many other clubs that just seem to use the opportunity for one line jokes and lobbing cheap insults.

Coronavirus has effectively stopped the footballing world dead in its tracks. Its a sad thing to say but some of the best and most memorable contributions on the forum recently have been in the obituary threads. We cannot move on, we can only look back. Short of shutting the forum down until that changes this is going to continue for a bit.

In the absence of anything other than crumbs of information there is an obvious tendency to over-analyse and it is almost becoming a daily cycle in which positives and negatives are tossed back and forth and we end back at the same place because nothing really has changed. I truly try not to do it, but the confinement of lockdown ensures that I usually fail.

[NORTHERNSOUL]

OK. Thanks Adam.

I agree that the completion of the EFL season cant be taken for granted. It might well not happen, although I do think we should see the EFL in its entirety. The Championship is also EFL and I think its chances of finishing are brighter than for L2. Its more incentivised to do so. Whilst you cannot rule the EFL eventually coming up with a solution that differentiates between its Divisions that would be quite a difficult one to pull off and would be pretty controversial. That's one of the problems with the EFL - its very diverse.

The problem as I see it for the NL is that they do not know, cannot know for certain right now how the EFL season will end and also because the NL tends to operate around an April key date when it is then forced to make decisions, and ahead of the EFL which is oriented more around June. It may believe that in all probability only 1 team will go up but it cannot make decisions on that basis. It has to plan for 2. The quotes such as they are from the EFL/NL would also seem to suggest this.

So the NL is going to have to make a decision without that question being answered - yet. Its in a highly vulnerable position because it cant make a decision that is guaranteed to be right. Stevenage will probably end up being the bargaining chip in this but the NL will take a hammering if it gets this wrong. Voiding in this respect creates a double jeopardy for the NL. As you've pointed out a void would allow the EFL in theory to select who it wanted to take the spare place - though I think the list of candidates is smaller than you suggest as not all 24 clubs are approved for the EFL or would want to go up. But if it weren't Barrow then this would subject the NL and the EFL to some ridicule. Secondly if the NL voided but the EFL season did complete or was declared then the EFL would reprieve Stevenage anyway using the excuse that the NL had in fact voided. In this instance it could have had two sides promoted but missed out by voiding.

I'm more inclined to the view that what we will get from the NL is a judgement that may not in fact look like a decision at all but is more hypothetical than real (i.e. If this happens...then we will do that). I'm not sure it'll be as clear and decisive as we might think.

Heres how I see it. The FL cannot void the season and needs to achieve a finish that meets the PL.s criteria simply because to do so gives the PL an out in that they could then simply declare Liverpool as champions and relegate nobody [ that is, of course, leaving aside the Sky/BT tv issue ] and that would then no doubt instigate legal action against the FL from the likes of Leeds and WBA of a size that could throw it into total chaos for years if not finish the FL completely.

So that's what's driving the FL on to restart or at worse declare on the basis of PPG or something similar so as not to give the PL an easy way out.and what I believe would prevent any hope of a reprieve of any sort for Stevenage [ but who if there is an early resolution to this could come out of it in better shape than most clubs in that all but 2 of their player's contracts expire on June 30th meaning they would have low ongoing costs given that the govt will be paying the majority of their wages till then ] And that is what I believe is driving the NL on to provide a finish order that would be acceptable to the FL given that they will need at least two clubs [ and maybe more if any FL clubs were to go bust in the meantime ] and they have decided they need to do that by the playoff route rather than by just declaring on the basis of PPG or some other artificial method.

The fly in the ointment for the NL here tho could come from Stockport who currently sit in 7th and in the playoffs but who would be edged out under PPG by Barnet who would jump from 11th up to their 7th slot and you could just see their new pretty rich owners creating a shitstorm financially that the NL simply don't have the means to deal with.